Recently, talks between the State Government, the Central Government and representatives of Kashmiri Pandits have raised hopes of return of Pandits to 'secure areas' in Kashmir. At a recent meeting of the National Federation of Indian Associations in the US, leaders of the Indo-American Kashmir Forum called for acceleration of such moves, pointing out that the Kashmiri Pandit population was in danger of slow extinction. The Chief Minister of the state, Farooq Abdullah, also has stated that the conditions are now conducive for the return of Kashmiri Pandits (Kashmir Times, Oct. 12, 1998).

 However, the Kashmiri Pandit Political Steering Committee (KPSSC), one of the organizations representing Kashmiri Pandit refugees in India, has rejected the moves to shift refugees back to the valley, pointing out the security situation as one of the reasons (Tribune India, Oct. 6, 1998). The Indian as well as the Jammu and Kashmir state governments need to consider the issues raised by the KPSSC in planning the return of Kashmiri Pandits to Kashmir Valley. This is all the more important in the context of recent statements by the state government, which did not appear to guarantee adequate safety of Kashmiri Pandits in the valley. Recent reports of escalation of militancy in the valley and the entry of Osama Bin Laden's mercenaries into the region (see article below) may need to be considered while assessing the security logistics of establishing 'secure areas' for Kashmiri Pandits.

 Some other reports bring up an even more grim scenario - that Bin Laden may be acquiring nuclear weapons. While the worst of these reports have not been confirmed by either the Indian military or by US officials, the implications of such moves are very clear. One may remember that the terrorists killed in US Tomahawk strikes in August were Pakistanis being trained to fight the jehad in Kashmir. Kashmir indeed is already on bin Laden's list of perpetual targets, and many terrorists captured there are found to have been trained in his camps. The only question is whether bin Laden is looking to escalate the war on Kashmir in order to avoid the heat by American forces against him. If so, this would be Kashmir's misfortune. There has indeed been an escalation of fierce daily firefights between the terrorists and the Indian army, and terror attacks on civilians seem to be on the rise again, including in Srinagar which had seen a period of relative calm until recently.

 The Indian Foreign Ministry called the statement "absurd" and promised to take up the issue of Pakistani support for terrorism in the region during the talks (Reuters, Oct. 8, 1998). Kashmiri Muslim leaders from both Jammu and Kashmir as well as from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir have blasted Pakistan for this statement (The Pioneer, Oct. 11, 1998). There are continued and numerous reports of large-scale repression and inhuman atrocities in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (The Times of India, Oct. 8, 1998). Chairman of the Jammu and Kashmir Peace Committee, Anwar Khan, pointed out that Pakistan had been regarded as the aggressor in the region by the UN resolutions and hence should vacate the occupied territory. The Indo-European Kashmiri Forum, representing Kashmiri Pandits, also has denounced the Pakistani statement.

 In all probability, the only residents of Kashmir that Pakistan can profess to represent are the Pakistan-supported terrorists who have been wreaking havoc in the state for nearly a decade. This is yet another example of Pakistan's cynical and destructive chess game in the region.

 A note of caution needs to be sounded on these suggestions. Irrespective of the nuclear question, an obvious danger has been overlooked by the organizations suggesting these moves. Pakistan is currently saturated with religous schools which act as breeding grounds of extremists and terrorists (Associated Press, Oct. 14, 1998). There are dozens of terrorist training camps located in Pakistan (see KIN updates below). Numerous reports describe a deep nexus between the Pakistan Army and terrorists operating in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. There are unmistakable signs of official support of international terrorism by Pakistan. Knowing that small arms are the weapon of choice of most terrorists, supplying of such equipment to Pakistan would be risky and irresponsible at best. Clinton administration officials are correct in not being enthusiastic about these ideas.

 Pakistan is in a dangerous, accelerating and downward spiral, with Islamic fundamentalism, extremism, and the influence of international terrorist groups building to a crescendo in a country with its economy in shambles. Resources that could be spent in uplifting the poverty stricken country are being dumped into training and arming terrorists headed for India. Much of the cadre of extremists comes from poor families who are being left behind in this continuing spiral. Clearly, pumping weapons into such a country is not going to do any good. US foreign policy experts at Brookings, CFR and the Stimson Center would do well to come up with alternative and fresh ideas to help break this spiral. The old Cold War philosophy of supplying arms to both sides is not a viable solution here.

 In addition, Michael Krepon of the Stimson Center, writing for the Washington Post (Oct. 15, 1998), also blamed Pakistan for fomenting and backing the militancy in Kashmir, and pointed out that the increased Indo-Pak border clashes this summer were a regular attempt by Pakistan to mask infiltration of terrorists into India. Krepon said that "Pakistan was playing with fire".

 It is clear that there is a growing recognition of the spread of Islamic fundamentalism and extremism in Pakistan and the fact that it stands out as one of the major sponsors and facilitators of international terrorism. What is not clear is whether there is going to be any shift in US attitudes towards that country, which was an ex-Cold War ally.